Research Article |
Corresponding author: Nancy G. Santos-Hernández ( nancy.santos@unicach.mx ) Corresponding author: José A. De Fuentes-Vicente ( jose.defuentes@unicach.mx ) Academic editor: Aaron Bauer
© 2021 Aarón Gómez-Cruz, Nancy G. Santos-Hernández, José Alberto Cruz, Daniel Ariano-Sánchez, Christian Ruiz-Castillejos, Eduardo E. Espinoza-Medinilla, José A. De Fuentes-Vicente.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Gómez-Cruz A, Santos-Hernández NG, Cruz JA, Ariano-Sánchez D, Ruiz-Castillejos C, Espinoza-Medinilla EE, De Fuentes-Vicente JA (2021) Effect of climate change on the potential distribution of Heloderma alvarezi (Squamata, Helodermatidae). ZooKeys 1070: 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3897/zookeys.1070.69186
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Climate change represents a real threat to biodiversity conservation worldwide. Although the effects on several species of conservation priority are known, comprehensive information about the impact of climate change on reptile populations is lacking. In the present study, we analyze outcomes on the potential distribution of the black beaded lizard (Heloderma alvarezi Bogert & Martin del Campo, 1956) under global warming scenarios. Its potential distribution, at present and in projections for the years 2050 and 2070, under both optimistic and pessimistic climate change forecasts, were computed using current data records and seven bioclimatic variables. General results predict a shift in the future potential distribution of H. alvarezi due to temperature increase. The optimistic scenario (4.5 W/m2) for 2070 suggests an enlargement in the species’ distribution as a response to the availability of new areas of suitable habitat. On the contrary, the worst-case scenario (7 W/m2) shows a distribution decrease by 65%. Moreover, the range distribution of H. alvarezi is directly related to the human footprint, which consequently could magnify negative outcomes for this species. Our research elucidates the importance of conservation strategies to prevent the extinction of the black beaded lizard, especially considering that this species is highly threatened by aversive hunting.
Climatic change, beaded lizard, conservation, Chiapas, México
In the coming years, the impacts of climate change are projected to play a critical role in global biodiversity dynamics. Since 1980, rainfall and runoff levels at a global scale have decreased annually, which causes an overall prolongation of the dry season and affects entire biomes and ecosystems (
Adaptative and geographic expansion responses of each group of organisms are crucial in determining their preservation or extinction. Accelerated global warming is causing the eradication of a significant proportion of the global reptile diversity (
Heloderma alvarezi, commonly known as the black beaded lizard, is one of the least studied Mexican lizards; hence, the impacts of climate change on this species are not well understood. However, the negative outcomes for helodermatids, given their sensitivity to temperature fluctuations, have been documented (
This study aimed to determine the potential geographical distribution of H. alvarezi, and to estimate the projected scenarios for 2050 and 2070 considering predicted climate change. Assessing the distribution of this species and the long-term environmental effects will allow us to understand its spatiotemporal variation, and to design effective conservation strategies for this species.
Heloderma alvarezi distribution data were collected between January and June 2020 from several bibliographic databases. These included GBIF (GBIF.org), Naturalista (naturalista.mx), VertNet (vertnet.org), and technical publications from the gray literature (
The Maximum Entropy (Maxent) approach (
Acronym | Variable | Percentage contribution | Permutation importance |
---|---|---|---|
Bio10 | Mean temperature of warmest quarter | 31.1 | 34.2 |
Bio15 | Precipitation seasonality | 30 | 4.7 |
Bio17 | Precipitation of driest quarter | 20.9 | 46.2 |
Bio2 | Mean diurnal range | 15.4 | 12.6 |
Bio3 | Isothermality | 1.9 | 0.2 |
Bio4 | Temperature seasonality | 0.7 | 1.9 |
Bio18 | Precipitation of warmest quarter | 0.1 | 0.3 |
Niche models were projected to future scenarios for the years 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 using a GCM MIROC 6 model under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Models were evaluated under simulated radiative forcings of 4.5 and 7 W/m2 to develop optimistic and pessimistic climate change forecasts, respectively (
Predictive accuracy was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). This can range in value from 0 to 1. A value less than 0.5 signifies that the classifier performs worse than a random classifier (
The current potential distribution model covered a range of 11,218.63 km2, specifically across the Central Depression of Chiapas and the border with Guatemala (Fig.
Distribution models projected to the future for H. alvarezi show variations according to the case scenario and year. The distribution decreases by 12% for the optimistic scenario in 2050, compared with the current distribution. By 2070, the distribution is expected to increase by 61% with a displacement towards altitudes between 800 and 2000 m, mainly in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas. On the other hand, pessimistic scenarios for 2050 exhibit an increased distribution of H. alvarezi (32%), although predictions for 2070 reveal a reduction of 65.5% (Fig.
According to our present-day distribution models, the distribution area of H. alvarezi extends over 11,218.63 km2 in the Central Chiapas Depression in Mexico and the Nentón River Valley in Guatemala. These areas are highly fragmented by human activity, which could induce individuals to settle where the impact of the human footprint is less pronounced, mainly on the borders of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas. This distribution excludes the regions of Socotelnango and La Concordia (Mexico) due to inappropriate environmental conditions (Suppl. material
Our results suggest that H. alvarezi is found principally in seasonally tropical dry forests (SDTF), categorized as a highly threatened ecosystem (
Because projected distribution maps predict future implications of climate change on a species’ conservation status, these climatic forecasts enable us to take forward-thinking actions. The seven highest-contributing bioclimatic variables in the potential distribution modeling of H. alvarezi, in order, were: mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) and mean diurnal range (Bio2). These are consistent with the findings of
When the human footprint layer was overlaid on the present-day distribution model of H. alvarezi, it may be seen that anthropogenic impact could be considerable. It has been observed with other organisms that human population growth, roads, and changes in land use affect an organism’s existence, especially by the occupation and transformation of the landscape, the alteration of the habitat and dispersal of physicochemical pollutants (Beck 2005;
According to our climate change scenarios, under an optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5) the distribution of the lizard would decrease by 2050, however, a substantial increase in projected distribution range is expected by 2070. This increase in distribution is expected towards the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, where perhaps suitable bioclimatic conditions for H. alvarezi are expected. Environmental factors (i.e., temperature and humidity) affect the species’ behavior and its habitat selection (
As expected, the most unfavorable conditions to H. alvarezi will occur under a pessimistic scenario. This model projects a reduction in the distribution range by 65%; this percentage is higher compared to other Heloderma, such as H. suspectum (Giermanowsky et al. 2018), but similar to those of other lepidosaurs (see
In addition, the rainy season begins the foraging and reproduction activity of the helodermatids, so a prolonged dry season would cause alterations in the population structure of these lizards (
The implementation of conservation programs for species highly sensitive to climate change is fundamental. The present study suggests that the future of the black beaded lizard is not encouraging under different climate change scenarios. Promoting structural and functional connectivity among the remaining SDT patches and their associated mesic conditions is the most effective weapon to facilitate the altitudinal and latitudinal migration of the species under a global warming forecast. Additionally, slowing down climate change constitutes a primary focus on conservation status for the organisms living in xeric ecosystems, included H. alvarezi.
Supplementary figures and table
Data type: species data
Explanation note: Figure S1. Current potential distribution map of H. alvarezi with political boundaries. Figure S2. Future potential distribution of H. alvarezi with current human footprint projections. Table S3. Heloderma alvarezi presence records used for potential distribution modeling.